Thoughts on CAN Capital
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  1. #11
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    CAN will almost certainly survive. By laying such a large portion of their staff, they are saving a lot on opex, perpetually. At an organization that size, you have a certain % of employees (tech, finance, project managers, etc.) that are there solely to create new products and/or to grow the company and scale infrastructure for the future, along some leading hires in the operations, credit, and risk functions that will support it when it occurs. Those are all disposable in a shrinking balance sheet environment, and the forecasted expenditures to support those projects becomes free cash again. CAN can operate with their existing technology, infrastructure, and staffing for a long time (provided they get credit losses under control) given they are current built to operate at a larger scale they they were, with ample room to grow.

    They do still have a brand, and that brand has goodwill. They pioneered the cash advance and have more data and observations over a longer timeline than anyone else for model development and analysis. Don't underestimate that last point either. The ONLY way to get credit performance data trained on your products in this space is to do it in real time given the lack of historical proxies. They are also the only firm in the space of any meaningful size that has historical data that could inform how to run a downturn playbook in the next economic cycle, which is coming.

    CAN sticks around, albeit smaller and more humble.

    Edit: There's an outside chance some bank that wants to enter the space buys CAN and all their data.
    Last edited by CreditGuy; 01-18-2017 at 10:12 AM.

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