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06-28-2016, 06:20 PM #1
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It's tough for this market to grow / scale to the levels folks thought it could... The merchant cash advance product is one which the buyer (MCA company) is betting that the seller (small business owner) will be going out of business. GREAT products endure bad markets. Look at Apple through the last Great Recession. Mediocre / poor products, not so much. Merchant cash advances can be useful for a wider array of businesses but the costs are simply too high for many to emerge from an MCA better than they were off prior to the MCA. For this reason, I think the only way the industry will survive / thrive / endure is through de-stabilization. That is to say it will be become more local...
John Q. Smith who is a millionaire cattle rancher in Olathe Kansas will be empowered to advance Joe B. Butcher one of his clients for returns that "beat the street" for John Q. Smith while the rates will also be much more approachable for Joe B. Butcher.
There simply won't be any room for a ton of middle men. Right now hedge funds and the like have to be paid, feeder funds have to be paid, funding company's have to be paid, brokers have to be paid... This is simply not sustainable.
Make no mistake about it, we are heading into a grandaddy of a recession. I know because I've been hired by a major institution to help them prepare... I think it will be a good cleansing experience for the MCA industry and what will emerged is a more localized / decentralized MCA industry where deals will be done like the very first one in this business ever was... Over a hand shake and face to face.
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06-28-2016, 06:58 PM #2
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This is like the funder saying,"Boy I just hope I lose my money on this deal." Comments like this show that you never really had a clue about this industry and that's why you crashed and burned. I say good riddance to those upstarts who naively entered this industry with dollar signs in their eyes and promptly got their asses handed to them.
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06-28-2016, 07:24 PM #3
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This is a highly emotional retort by someone who is facing inevitable displacement. You're a middleman.
I've sat in on investor meetings where's they said "you're basically circling the drain betting to get your money back before they go out right?" Then they handed over a check.
My partner was hired to do marketing where the owner of the firm had to impress on him that the owner desired merchants who were "on deaths door..."
Additionally, grab 10,000 UCCs of businesses that took more than one MCA from 2012 to present. What percentage are still in business? If you want to know you can pay for that research. Plain and simple. Any repeat MCA customer is poor owner / operators. It's simple math and basic tautological reasoning sir.
Finally, Your opinions and emotions will never a) hold a candle to the breadth and depth of my research. b) obfuscate the fact that MCAs are a subprime product. c) change the fact that Most businesses who resort to MCA did so because of their inability to run their businesses properly.
Regarding crashing and burning... At least we were not in denial. What's your next move?
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06-28-2016, 08:09 PM #4jotucker1983Guest
The New Frontier.
As I've been preaching on this forum, this industry is structured on the 80/20 rule, where 20% of the people in this space have the resources (marketing budgets, networks, data, technology, etc.) to have staying power which can be defined as either middle class ($50k - $65k a year) or higher class (making at or over $100k a year) in terms of income. The other 80% lack the resources and are spending their time on dead strategies such as cold calling out of the Yellow Pages, calling on over-saturated UCC data, or calling on Aged Leads. They are like a revolving door.
Going forward that 20% is going to get bigger and powerful through more strategic networks, partnerships, and more capital that will flood into the industry for their usage. That 80% is pretty much going to continue to wash out to where the industry as a whole doesn't even "entertain" them anymore.
The New Frontier will be a "form" of an Oligopoly v.s. the Perfect Competition structure that we've had prior. There will be "higher" barriers to entry going forward but not in a direct way (such as to ban people out through required licensing tactics) but it will be in an indirect way in terms of the resources needed to succeed (capital, budgets, networks, technology, people, etc.) only going to the "20%" that have oligopolized the industry.
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06-28-2016, 08:10 PM #5jotucker1983Guest
This statement is completely wrong for the majority of the market (which are the 1st position funders). For 1st position funders the merchants about to go out of business don't get funded. The merchants who look like they are about to go out of business down the line don't get funded. The product is basically the "sub-prime loan" of the small business market. It's for small businesses that don't have good credit (good credit is considered 720, anything less than 670 is considered poor) along with other factors to where they can't get the financing needed from the traditional system. The merchants getting funded are those who are stable, growing, with decent cashflow.
Now when you get into the stackers putting 2nd - 11th position stacks on merchants, now you have a point. But they don't represent the majority of the market and quite frankly, their entire market is going to blow up going forward as many 1st position funders stop foolishly filing UCCs on good accounts knowing this is going on out here.
It depends on what the MCA is being used for, most of my clients use it for growth investments. None of my clients have gone out of business from using the products I've put in place, but then again, I've pretty much only been placing A/B products, with the occassional C paper. I very rarely do a 2nd position and if I do it, it's on a rare case-by-case basis.
What's going to be shaken out will be fraudsters, stackers, and those who are not apart of that "20%" I keep talking about in terms of having the resources needed for staying power.
The MCA and the short term alternative business loan, are here to stay. Going forward, it's just not going to be anybody with a "heartbeat and pulse" reselling them. Which is good. I can't wait for the shake out to happen fast enough. 80% of the people in the industry had no business EVER being here.Last edited by jotucker1983; 06-28-2016 at 08:13 PM.
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06-28-2016, 08:54 PM #6
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Lol. You're making the classic rookie mistake of assuming a causation from a correlation. 80-90% of ALL new businesses fail within 5 years, not just those who took an MCA. If this is an example of your analytical prowess, then no wonder you couldn't succeed in this field.
Last edited by MCNetwork; 06-28-2016 at 08:57 PM.
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