Average Default Rate
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  1. #1
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    I don't know too many funders that can be very profitable with a 15% default rate.

    A-B paper default rate should be 5 - 8%

    C-D paper default rate should be 9 - 13%

    From my experience once you go over 13% default rate it is very hard to turn a profit. Cost of money, overhead, commissions, advertising etc... Will not allow you to have a default rate above 13%. Unless your average turn time on deals is under 5 months, closer to 3 months then maybe the D paper shops can stomach 13% + default rates because they're turning their money 2.5 - 3.5 times a year

  2. #2
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    Which is exactly where I was going with the 15% number. If you are churning deals over 3X a year, then 15% is completely profitable.
    Andrew J. McDonald
    Director of ISO Development
    Yellowstone Capital LLC
    1 Evertrust Plaza
    Suite 1401
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    FX - 646.213.1790

  3. #3
    Veteran Reputation points: 159120 J.Celifarco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyYSCISOdept View Post
    Which is exactly where I was going with the 15% number. If you are churning deals over 3X a year, then 15% is completely profitable.
    not when you take into account overhead and commission paid. You get over 13% bad debt I dont care what you are charging it is hard to make a profit
    John Celifarco
    Managing Partner
    Horizon Funding Group

    3423 Ave S
    Brooklyn, NY 11234
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    Email: john@horizonfundinggroup.com

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by MCA View Post
    I don't know too many funders that can be very profitable with a 15% default rate.

    A-B paper default rate should be 5 - 8%

    C-D paper default rate should be 9 - 13%

    From my experience once you go over 13% default rate it is very hard to turn a profit.
    Turn length and pricing come into play here. You can make a nice profit on a 20% absolute default rate (where merchant pays back a net of $0) if you're doing 1.48 on 3 month turns for example.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by YuliyaG View Post
    Turn length and pricing come into play here. You can make a nice profit on a 20% absolute default rate (where merchant pays back a net of $0) if you're doing 1.48 on 3 month turns for example.
    Obviously the goal is a Default rate under 5% (Need those Tax Write Offs!)
    Andrew J. McDonald
    Director of ISO Development
    Yellowstone Capital LLC
    1 Evertrust Plaza
    Suite 1401
    Jersey city, NJ 07302
    PH - 347.464.0785
    FX - 646.213.1790

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by AndyYSCISOdept View Post
    Obviously the goal is a Default rate under 5% (Need those Tax Write Offs!)
    Ha! Definitely MIGHT be gettable if you're giving out ten bucks on a 1.10 PB with a 6 month turn... lol

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by YuliyaG View Post
    Ha! Definitely MIGHT be gettable if you're giving out ten bucks on a 1.10 PB with a 6 month turn... lol
    I don't think what Im giving is as important as WHO IM GIVING IT TO. Agree?

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by YuliyaG View Post
    Turn length and pricing come into play here. You can make a nice profit on a 20% absolute default rate (where merchant pays back a net of $0) if you're doing 1.48 on 3 month turns for example.
    please explain your math

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael I View Post
    please explain your math
    The math is not simple. But here's a screen shot based on our formulas...

    Screen Shot.jpg

    One thing to keep in mind is that the money is going out as fast as it's coming in. So, you're putting money out as it's being paid back. So it's not as a simple calculation as you might expect - it's completely algorithmic... Really took quite a while to even figure where to start... It's based on a lot of assumptions. One of which is that a default is when a merchant pays $0

  10. #10
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    but are you calculating broker commission , cost of capital and underwriting fees . also no one does 60 days deals anymore

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael I View Post
    but are you calculating broker commission , cost of capital and underwriting fees . also no one does 60 days deals anymore
    Yes I understand no one does 60 day deals anymore. Screen shot just shows what is possible if that were the case. Broker commissions and overhead costs are not calculated in this shot. This is just the most rudimentary thing we did before building out more focused models... just grabbed it and made a screen shot.

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