[MechantLoans]

http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2015/0...business-plan/

[mcaguru]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2907...-business-plan

[Funder Mark]

I did not buy, I am glad I did not buy, this stock is going to drop. Give it a month, give it 6 months, but it will happen.

[Chambo]

Check out the total salary, stock options and incentive pay for them:
CEO Breslow ~$866,000
COO Hobson ~$540,000
CFO Katzenberg ~$607,000
Total ~$2,013,000

So executives are making almost six times as much money as On Deck reported clearing last quarter!

Conclusion:

Share prices screamed as IPO-eager investors jumped on On Deck, largely believed to be a technology play rather than a payday loan company for small businesses.

Now On Deck faces use of shady brokers, growing competition, out-of-line executive compensation, massive debt, anticipated new strict regulations, and bad loan losses chewing up revenue.

Additionally, 56 million shares will become unlocked and may be sold on June 3. With 66.2 million shares outstanding, possibly dumping almost that many On Deck shares again on the market creates another negative catalyst.

At the foundation is On Deck’s unsustainable business model. Making easy-qualifying, quick loans to desperate small businesses and charging them 50 percent-plus interest rates reminds us of the sub-prime loan debacle.

On Deck is a disaster just waiting to happen.

[Chambo]

The day of reckoning has been set

Over 56 million shares unlock on June 3. With 66.2 million shares outstanding, the risk of dumping almost that many shares again on the market creates a stunning negative catalyst.

[Sean Cash]

Check out the total salary, stock options and incentive pay for them:
CEO Breslow ~$866,000
COO Hobson ~$540,000
CFO Katzenberg ~$607,000
Total ~$2,013,000

So executives are making almost six times as much money as On Deck reported clearing last quarter!

Conclusion:

Share prices screamed as IPO-eager investors jumped on On Deck, largely believed to be a technology play rather than a payday loan company for small businesses.

Now On Deck faces use of shady brokers, growing competition, out-of-line executive compensation, massive debt, anticipated new strict regulations, and bad loan losses chewing up revenue.

Additionally, 56 million shares will become unlocked and may be sold on June 3. With 66.2 million shares outstanding, possibly dumping almost that many On Deck shares again on the market creates another negative catalyst.

At the foundation is On Deck’s unsustainable business model. Making easy-qualifying, quick loans to desperate small businesses and charging them 50 percent-plus interest rates reminds us of the sub-prime loan debacle.

On Deck is a disaster just waiting to happen.

This "report" that circulated around today was written by people shorting the stock. There's literally a disclaimer at the bottom saying "we're currently short in this stock"

[Chambo]

Welcome to the REAL world of high finance

[Funder Mark]

The really incredible part, which I do not think people really realized until now, was that the CEO Noah Breslow has a higher salary then what they cleared last quarter. Can anybody imagine this happening at Costco or Home Depot? The stockbrokers would have the CEO fired in a second!!! Forget crazy fees Chambo, how unreasonable is that???

[isaacdstern]

it already did...hit $28 on the first day and is down to $17 now, hit $14 at one point a week or 2 ago

I did not buy, I am glad I did not buy, this stock is going to drop. Give it a month, give it 6 months, but it will happen.

[isaacdstern]

I cant speak for any other CEO but until we actually made money I did not take a dollar

The really incredible part, which I do not think people really realized until now, was that the CEO Noah Breslow has a higher salary then what they cleared last quarter. Can anybody imagine this happening at Costco or Home Depot? The stockbrokers would have the CEO fired in a second!!! Forget crazy fees Chambo, how unreasonable is that???

[Funder Mark]

True, but that was more of a general post-IPO drop. Not saying that it happens every time, just saying it happens, when there is too much hype. But when the 62 million shares hits the streets, then the sharks will smell the blood, and everyone will explain what a bad idea it was to buy the company.

[CreditGuy]

"So let’s take the actual dollars lost or $26.7 million lost in loans charged-off in the last nine months. And look at that as a percentage of the last nine months’ gross revenue of $107.6 million.

That works out to a whopping loan loss of 24.8 percent."

Did bizloanbroker do this math? Gross revenues don't include repayments of principal, but the loss figure includes principal written off. That's the only way to arrive at a loss rate in the 20s and it is ignorant of accounting practices within the finance industry.

[isaacdstern]

I always thought their default rate was in the mid 20's but that was just a theory, Did Bizloan and Creditguy run the numbers?

[CreditGuy]

I pulled the numbers our of the securitization and S-1 filings here.

[isaacdstern]

if their real default rate is 24.8% they must be hemorrhaging money......

[J.Celifarco]

Thats a scary number if its true.. That will make the earnings call they have coming up very interesting

[isaacdstern]

if that's the real number then how did they ever pull off the securitization?

[Guy In The Know]

I pulled the numbers our of the securitization and S-1 filings here.

CG what did I tell you? do not bother with math or data here

[Guy In The Know]

if their real default rate is 24.8% they must be hemorrhaging money......

It is not their default rate!

READ THE S-1 MAN!

[mcg168]

if their real default rate is 24.8% they must be hemorrhaging money......

They have been around waaaay too long to be able to survive at a 25% default rate. If I had a 25% default rate with them as an ISO, I'm 99% sure they would stop accepting deals from me.

At their rates, anything above 10% would have them hemorrhaging money

[Chambo]

They have been around waaaay too long to be able to survive at a 25% default rate. If I had a 25% default rate with them as an ISO, I'm 99% sure they would stop accepting deals from me.

At their rates, anything above 10% would have them hemorrhaging money

When you are robbing Peter to pay Paul (in this case 6 rounds of private financing prior to securitization), it can be accomplished.

There was this guy who had a plan similar to this at the turn of last century. Charles Ponzi was his name, I believe

[CreditGuy]

That so many people here are so bad at math and facts, yet involved in credit and finance, is staggering.

[blKC]

Anyone else notice ODC taking 2nds on deals?

Used to be rare to see that.

[mcg168]

Anyone else notice ODC taking 2nds on deals?

Used to be rare to see that.

I think they have some deals that the fall thru the cracks since they have been trying to fund deals so quickly, but the last thing need is to get in the stacking game...They offer some of the best rates in our industry and they're geting attacked in the media about predatory lending, imagine how the articles would look if they were stacking deals.

[blKC]

I think they have some deals that the fall thru the cracks since they have been trying to fund deals so quickly, but the last thing need is to get in the stacking game...They offer some of the best rates in our industry and they're geting attacked in the media about predatory lending, imagine how the articles would look if they were stacking deals.

I thought it was odd that they would start stacking now...

Must be a coincidence that I saw a few in a short period.