I would peg the oil rates to the Saudis, Russians, and Iran. It seems they could care less about the macroeconomics. I would try to quantify the correlation of oil. Idk what mortgage rates you see at 8% when they are tied to the 10-yr US Treasury Note.
To address your last statement I would think that the rise of interest rates simply means the rise of cost of capital. SO, YES. MCAs, PEs, VCs, and any other instrument should respond accordingly.
However, my personal speculation is that we are NOT seeing a dovish fed for a long time.