There's a simple solution to all of this: when considering an IPO investment, if you did not get in ahead of the offering or through the private placement, wait until the instrument has crashed through the offering price. Twice. Should the company still look viable at that point, and is pushing against the offering price as though it were resistance on the chart, then by all means load the boat. Cut into the mattress. Simple, and you avoid a lot of BS in the process.