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06-14-2022, 09:05 AM #1
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Markets are crashing. Do you think we will see a big uptick in merchant defaults?
All signs point to a massive recession incoming. Stock markets are taking a hit. Crypto markets are crashing. Housing market is a giant bubble about to completely burst and enter into correction.
Do you think we will see a big uptick in merchant defaults?
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06-14-2022, 09:37 AM #2
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im down so much crypto wise.
Its pretty much black monday right now.
so horrible..... but it will recover...
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06-14-2022, 09:43 AM #3
Yes and more debt restructure...
Steve Benjamin
Professional Business Loans
522 Contessa
Irvine, CA 92620
steveprobiz@gmail.com
https://probizloans.net/
Broker, Underwriter, general business loan expert
949.228.1050
@ 24 hour funding working capital loans
@ Term loans from 3 years to 10 years at 9.5% and up
@ Equipment financing up to 7 years
@ Property loans - Hard Money and traditional - Primary, Investment, commercial, land, fix and flip, construction.
@ SBA loans - 7A and 504.
@ Private money equity and debt for major investments
@ Personal Loans up to gross income from personal tax return.
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06-14-2022, 10:54 AM #4
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The recession is projected for the 1st half of 2023 (https://fortune.com/2022/06/13/reces...nterest-rates/)
Assuming Jan 1 recession hits, you have 6.5 months before things go belly up. So to protect myself as much as I can I've been funding max 120 days.
I do believe some of the household names that are funding 150 days+ will take a massive hit. EBF, Forward, and even some of the news guys that are doing some crazy term deals.
This is obviously all speculation but Im taking from what I saw during Covid and trying to scale back in terms of funding.
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06-14-2022, 03:17 PM #5
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06-14-2022, 03:18 PM #6
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06-14-2022, 03:22 PM #7
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06-14-2022, 04:16 PM #8
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I never really trusted crypto and when I tried to trust it the entire market decided to collapse soooo... I'm just gonna stick to investing in Mcdonalds and Jeff Bezos
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06-14-2022, 04:53 PM #9
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06-14-2022, 04:57 PM #10
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- Jan 2018
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You only say its the future because your regurgitating what the "smart kids" are saying but it literally does nothing to prove that it really is the future of currency. Also how the f will prices in the future work? One day you wake up and you can buy a maserati with 1 bitcoin and the next day you can only buy a toyota camry with 1 bitcoin? The value of bitcoin changes so dramatically literally every second of the day.
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06-14-2022, 07:23 PM #11
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- Dec 2021
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The hard core believers will tell you its God giving you all another chance to get in.... Like you missed the big cruise ship but it makes a U-Turn to let you come back on ...... (I'm in no way suggesting anyone buy this risky asset!).
Marcus Clapman
Capybara Capital
marcus@capybarausa.com
www.capybarausa.com
646-708-5986 (Text Friendly!)
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06-14-2022, 08:10 PM #12
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- Feb 2018
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just fund recession proof deals, liquor stores and cannabis. two of which everyone will need if they don't stop talking about covid and a recession hits
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06-15-2022, 08:27 AM #13
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My Take:
Yes, we may enter a recession due to inflation and the fed raising rates to curb spending. The challenge to this is to stifle the right group of spenders. There is still a LOT of dry power capital in many forms in the market and health balance sheets of large companies. The smaller companies and lower income individuals are the ones whom might get hurt. What is also troubling is the fast cycles of the economy. It is making it extremely difficult for lower middle market businesses to plan and ultimately they will react to situation instead of getting ahead of them.
Rising interest rates will have an adverse affect on the finance company community:
-Yes-smaller companies may default.
-There are already a lot of lower middle market company problems within banks that have not been pressured to leave ......yet.
-Interest rates rising for banks that are deposit heavy eats into net income unless they deploy loans.
-Finance companies that are pricing deals on factor rates or discount rates and have been aggressive on pricing are going to get squeezed as their credit facilities are tied to Prime or other metrics. You may see some small finance companies ask clients to leave because they are losing money on deals they priced too cheap the last 12-24 months.Kevin Henry
VP-Business Development
Seacoast Business Funding, a division of Seacoast Bank
561-850-9346
Kevin.Henry@SeacoastBF.com
1880 N Congress Ave., Suite 404
Boynton Beach, FL 33426
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06-15-2022, 10:07 AM #14
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- Mar 2021
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cannabis.. Not recession proof IME.. have merchants who were doing great ..big operations who lost it all during covid... I know covid doesnt equal recession ... but it kind of does
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06-15-2022, 12:21 PM #15
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thats interesting was it because they were forced to shut down and didn't have a delivery business as an adjunct?
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06-28-2022, 05:10 PM #16
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- Jun 2022
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Crypto has crashed similarly multiple times before and has recovered to make new All-time highs. Why do you think this time it won't recover?
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06-28-2022, 07:50 PM #17
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I believe very strongly that if Bitcoin held its 40K value or climbed to 60K while the DowJones and Nasdaq Composite started dropping aggressively (15-30% YTD) then Bitcoin would be seen as a stable asset that would then break into the 100's! however being that it fell like a typical security it then lost its magic. (jury still out -- I hope it goes back up!).
Marcus Clapman
Capybara Capital
marcus@capybarausa.com
www.capybarausa.com
646-708-5986 (Text Friendly!)
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06-28-2022, 08:18 PM #18
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It has never crashed like this. It was kept afloat by a **** ton of PPP and EDD money in the system. It’s gone now. Russia is unable to sink billions into it like it once did.
It’s either gonna be a currency or an investment. It’s value as an investment is based on nothing than speculation. There’s no underlying value.
As a currency it will always be good for buying drugs, prostitutes and financing wars in South America.
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06-29-2022, 09:44 AM #19
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06-29-2022, 10:14 AM #20
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- Dec 2021
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Marcus Clapman
Capybara Capital
marcus@capybarausa.com
www.capybarausa.com
646-708-5986 (Text Friendly!)
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07-01-2022, 01:12 PM #21
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- May 2022
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- 62
Sorta related , Im currently dealing with merchants that dont want to take on any capital bc the economy, more often than not its truckers, waiting for fuel and rig prices to go down, what I tell them is that " hey look I get it but neither of us are financial analysts, sure the cost of a new trailer or rig is double and you want to wait a few months to see if it will go down , but what if in 3 months it cost triple.
you get it , it seems to drive behavior for those weak on there objections.
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07-06-2022, 06:01 PM #22
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- Mar 2019
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- 254
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07-07-2022, 10:59 AM #23
I deal with a lot of truckers. If they just got into the industry over the past several years when their load rates were sky high and fuel was at rock bottom, they've never gone through a tough period such as in 2008, but there are plenty of truckers and trucking companies who know how to run their business properly and are able to survive. The ones who can't afford fuel now are the ones who got into a business quick without knowing how to run it profitably.
Last edited by ridextreme; 07-07-2022 at 11:02 AM.
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