I'm sure a lot of you have been contemplating my thoughts here...

We're seeing lots of lenders come back online. Many have tightened their UW belt to the point they've gone up a notch on the A-D paper scale. This is going to leave so many high-risk businesses without the ability to get capital. Pretty sure we can all agree to that.

Who is going to fill the void? New, aggressive funders?
What regulations are coming down the pike that can hurt the industry?
Can existing MCA firms compete in a zero interest rate environment? Money is so cheap.
Square added 76,000 merchants to its portfolio via PPP origination. How do smaller firms compete for leads when the big firms have that stranglehold on the market?

I'm a big fan of the concept of Variant Perception set forth by Michael Steinhardt. Variant perception, according to Steinhardt, is "holding a well-founded view that was meaningfully different than the market consensus."

The consensus is that things will return to "normal" (i.e. pre-COVID), albeit adjusted, more stringent UW guidelines. I just can't see it. I'm anticipating consolidation across the board, lower prices, thinner commissions, way fewer brokers and a much higher cost of customer acquisition. Also a rise in new funding that is asset based. The market shakeout is underway. Only the nimble brokers will survive and the lean lenders who don't lose sight of their UW guidelines (assuming both can source leads at a reasonable cost). Am I way off?


What are your thoughts? Next 12, 18, 36 months? Is this tomato rotten or just getting ripe on the vine? I literally can cut it either way and would like to hear industry professionals' thoughts