[mcaguru]

https://smallbiztrends.com/2019/12/q...ess-index.html

[Kevin Henry-Seacoast]

Wow! Awesome read ..... If you can read around the 10,000 click adds on their website. Must be a real respected business publication......

[mcaguru]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nf...ber-2019-12-10


Maybe the NFIB report has less distractions

[Kevin Henry-Seacoast]

They polled only 500 small businesses and did not indicate what industry or region. William Dunkelberg is their chief economist. I would rather pay attention to what Mark Vitner has to say or better Liz Ann Sonders.

[mcaguru]

You seem bearish Kevin !

[BB_Cooper]

They polled only 500 small businesses and did not indicate what industry or region. William Dunkelberg is their chief economist. I would rather pay attention to what Mark Vitner has to say or better Liz Ann Sonders.

Wasn't DUnkelberg Ryan Seacrest's original co-host?

[Nunya]

Better to be a Kevin than a Marcus.

[Kevin Henry-Seacoast]

Marcus,

A few things..... A judge of what is really going on in the economy can be determined by what is going on around you and what is going on with businesses you know. Look out you window on Clematis Street and count how many for lease signs are on stores that have been closed for months. Talk to business owners and listen to their stories of how hard it is to get people to actually do good work while at the same time their customers are squeezing their margins and stretching terms with them. Prime example-Go read what happened to Centerline Solutions in Colorado. They WERE are somewhat large cell tower maintenance and service company that went toes up during a time when everyone is screaming 5G! 5G! 5G! They were an $80Mil business not long ago.....

Another point.... A booming economy does not help the alternative lending or alternative capital markets. During a booming economy, money is plentiful from very cost effective sources. If the economy is booming, why am I getting so many calls in the last 4-6 months from companies that have been asked to leave by their bank.
If you are in the alternative capital markets you welcome a stagnant or down-turning economy as more and more businesses will be asked to find a new lender. There is a fine balance of liking doom instead of boom. If the economy takes a widespread down turn, some alternative capital sources will get wiped out much like they did in 2008 and 2009.....only this time it could be potentially much worse due to the amount of unsecured debt that is floating in the market staked on top of secured lenders. Try as you might......you are not getting those companies out of their situation.....I am starting to see more and more of this.

Perception is reading happy thoughts on the internet. Reality is paying attention to what is going on around you. Reality wins every time.....

[Kevin Henry-Seacoast]

Wasn't DUnkelberg Ryan Seacrest's original co-host?

Not sure.... he was an economist for Beonning & Scattergood many moons ago. B&S is a well respected firm that has been around forever, but they don't move markets.

[mcaguru]

Better to be a Kevin than a Marcus.

That's a very deep concept. Philosophers poured barrels of ink on the subject.

[Kevin Henry-Seacoast]

John Mendelson, former market strategist said it best: "Pay attention to what investors actually do instead of what they say". Before John retired, he called markets better than most.

[mcaguru]

I've heard this concept before that only "after" an economic boom do people actually realize the good times but not while they are actually taking place. .. (almost like happiness --when people are sad do they realize how a while back life was great).

[Kevin Henry-Seacoast]

When you're dead, you don't really know you're dead. It's difficult for others. The same thing happens when you're stupid.

[mcaguru]

[QUOTE= It's difficult for others. .[/QUOTE]

Depends who!