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  1. #1

    Question Markets are crashing. Do you think we will see a big uptick in merchant defaults?

    All signs point to a massive recession incoming. Stock markets are taking a hit. Crypto markets are crashing. Housing market is a giant bubble about to completely burst and enter into correction.

    Do you think we will see a big uptick in merchant defaults?

  2. #2
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    im down so much crypto wise.
    Its pretty much black monday right now.
    so horrible..... but it will recover...

  3. #3
    Senior Member Reputation points: 66298 Olderguy's Avatar
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    Yes and more debt restructure...
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  4. #4
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    The recession is projected for the 1st half of 2023 (https://fortune.com/2022/06/13/reces...nterest-rates/)

    Assuming Jan 1 recession hits, you have 6.5 months before things go belly up. So to protect myself as much as I can I've been funding max 120 days.

    I do believe some of the household names that are funding 150 days+ will take a massive hit. EBF, Forward, and even some of the news guys that are doing some crazy term deals.

    This is obviously all speculation but Im taking from what I saw during Covid and trying to scale back in terms of funding.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryan $ View Post
    im down so much crypto wise.
    Its pretty much black monday right now.
    so horrible..... but it will recover...
    I don’t see it recovering.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by WestCoastFunding View Post
    I don’t see it recovering.
    You dont see crypto recovering? LOL why not?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirFundAlot View Post
    You dont see crypto recovering? LOL why not?
    Because it’s value as an investment comes solely from speculation. I mean, its a currency that’s treated as an investment — which is sort of self defeating. Most investments have fundamentals that will drive the value. Crypto doesnt have that.

  8. #8
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    I never really trusted crypto and when I tried to trust it the entire market decided to collapse soooo... I'm just gonna stick to investing in Mcdonalds and Jeff Bezos

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by WestCoastFunding View Post
    Because it’s value as an investment comes solely from speculation. I mean, its a currency that’s treated as an investment — which is sort of self defeating. Most investments have fundamentals that will drive the value. Crypto doesnt have that.
    Valid point, however- it is the future whether we like it or not...

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirFundAlot View Post
    Valid point, however- it is the future whether we like it or not...
    You only say its the future because your regurgitating what the "smart kids" are saying but it literally does nothing to prove that it really is the future of currency. Also how the f will prices in the future work? One day you wake up and you can buy a maserati with 1 bitcoin and the next day you can only buy a toyota camry with 1 bitcoin? The value of bitcoin changes so dramatically literally every second of the day.

  11. #11
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    The hard core believers will tell you its God giving you all another chance to get in.... Like you missed the big cruise ship but it makes a U-Turn to let you come back on ...... (I'm in no way suggesting anyone buy this risky asset!).
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  12. #12
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    just fund recession proof deals, liquor stores and cannabis. two of which everyone will need if they don't stop talking about covid and a recession hits

  13. #13
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    My Take:

    Yes, we may enter a recession due to inflation and the fed raising rates to curb spending. The challenge to this is to stifle the right group of spenders. There is still a LOT of dry power capital in many forms in the market and health balance sheets of large companies. The smaller companies and lower income individuals are the ones whom might get hurt. What is also troubling is the fast cycles of the economy. It is making it extremely difficult for lower middle market businesses to plan and ultimately they will react to situation instead of getting ahead of them.

    Rising interest rates will have an adverse affect on the finance company community:
    -Yes-smaller companies may default.
    -There are already a lot of lower middle market company problems within banks that have not been pressured to leave ......yet.
    -Interest rates rising for banks that are deposit heavy eats into net income unless they deploy loans.
    -Finance companies that are pricing deals on factor rates or discount rates and have been aggressive on pricing are going to get squeezed as their credit facilities are tied to Prime or other metrics. You may see some small finance companies ask clients to leave because they are losing money on deals they priced too cheap the last 12-24 months.
    Hedley Lamarr......That's Hedley

  14. #14
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    cannabis.. Not recession proof IME.. have merchants who were doing great ..big operations who lost it all during covid... I know covid doesnt equal recession ... but it kind of does

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    thats interesting was it because they were forced to shut down and didn't have a delivery business as an adjunct?

  16. #16
    Crypto has crashed similarly multiple times before and has recovered to make new All-time highs. Why do you think this time it won't recover?

  17. #17
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    I believe very strongly that if Bitcoin held its 40K value or climbed to 60K while the DowJones and Nasdaq Composite started dropping aggressively (15-30% YTD) then Bitcoin would be seen as a stable asset that would then break into the 100's! however being that it fell like a typical security it then lost its magic. (jury still out -- I hope it goes back up!).
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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhillyFunder View Post
    Crypto has crashed similarly multiple times before and has recovered to make new All-time highs. Why do you think this time it won't recover?
    It has never crashed like this. It was kept afloat by a **** ton of PPP and EDD money in the system. It’s gone now. Russia is unable to sink billions into it like it once did.

    It’s either gonna be a currency or an investment. It’s value as an investment is based on nothing than speculation. There’s no underlying value.

    As a currency it will always be good for buying drugs, prostitutes and financing wars in South America.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by WestCoastFunding View Post
    It has never crashed like this. It was kept afloat by a **** ton of PPP and EDD money in the system. It’s gone now. Russia is unable to sink billions into it like it once did.

    It’s either gonna be a currency or an investment. It’s value as an investment is based on nothing than speculation. There’s no underlying value.

    As a currency it will always be good for buying drugs, prostitutes and financing wars in South America.
    It's crashed way worse than this bud. Dec 2017 to Dec 2018 Bitcoin went from ~20k to ~3k. Going from 65k to 19k ain't nothing. It's going to go lower before it goes higher.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by budlightboy View Post
    It's crashed way worse than this bud. Dec 2017 to Dec 2018 Bitcoin went from ~20k to ~3k. Going from 65k to 19k ain't nothing. It's going to go lower before it goes higher.
    it ain't nothing?? there are guys right now in Miami that cant fill up their Lamborghini Sián's gas tanks.
    Marcus Clapman
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  21. #21
    Sorta related , Im currently dealing with merchants that dont want to take on any capital bc the economy, more often than not its truckers, waiting for fuel and rig prices to go down, what I tell them is that " hey look I get it but neither of us are financial analysts, sure the cost of a new trailer or rig is double and you want to wait a few months to see if it will go down , but what if in 3 months it cost triple.
    you get it , it seems to drive behavior for those weak on there objections.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMattTasticVoyage View Post
    Sorta related , Im currently dealing with merchants that dont want to take on any capital bc the economy, more often than not its truckers, waiting for fuel and rig prices to go down, what I tell them is that " hey look I get it but neither of us are financial analysts, sure the cost of a new trailer or rig is double and you want to wait a few months to see if it will go down , but what if in 3 months it cost triple.
    you get it , it seems to drive behavior for those weak on there objections.
    i hear the part of holding off on a rig. but for s trucker to say he is waiting to buy fuel means that he is shutting down business and ceasing to operate.
    iv had a few truckers that told me they are leaving their industry

  23. #23
    Senior Member Reputation points: 99210 ridextreme's Avatar
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    I deal with a lot of truckers. If they just got into the industry over the past several years when their load rates were sky high and fuel was at rock bottom, they've never gone through a tough period such as in 2008, but there are plenty of truckers and trucking companies who know how to run their business properly and are able to survive. The ones who can't afford fuel now are the ones who got into a business quick without knowing how to run it profitably.
    Last edited by ridextreme; 07-07-2022 at 11:02 AM.

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