[SFC]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Take a look at those projections, seems like we'll all be back June 1st ish... Maybe with masks, maybe with hand washing etc.

Hope this provides some hope as well as some ability to plan.

Hope everyone is staying safe at home.

[Chambo]

thee is a BIG difference between being allowed to go back to work, and business being completely up and running

1) how many funds will have credit lines checked?
2) will the full ramifications to portfolio be realized by June?
3) how many merchants can last it out for another six weeks (or more)?
4) the emergency Covid 19 SBA....in a good year, they would take 4-6 weeks to complete? With all the increased volume, you think that you can get it done sooner?
5) how many merchant will be gun shy after this? won't be hiring back full staff, etc?

[SmartAdvanced]

thee is a BIG difference between being allowed to go back to work, and business being completely up and running

1) how many funds will have credit lines checked?
2) will the full ramifications to portfolio be realized by June?
3) how many merchants can last it out for another six weeks (or more)?
4) the emergency Covid 19 SBA....in a good year, they would take 4-6 weeks to complete? With all the increased volume, you think that you can get it done sooner?
5) how many merchant will be gun shy after this? won't be hiring back full staff, etc?

Chambo, being that you always live on pessimism and worst case scenarios, you probably have your wish come true in these days, as a living dream, but let me ask you, is it that bad or is there any hope?

[dworange]

Chambo, being that you always live on pessimism and worst case scenarios, you probably have your wish come true in these days, as a living dream, but let me ask you, is it that bad or is there any hope?

i agree with chambo it is that bad

[SFC]

thee is a BIG difference between being allowed to go back to work, and business being completely up and running

Response in red

1) how many funds will have credit lines checked?
Americans are pretty resourceful and entrepreneurial. Plenty of people will source capital for this. Giving money to businesses has been around since the beginning of business and it's not going to end now. There may or may not be traditional lines but there are TONS of other options to get capital to advance.
2) will the full ramifications to portfolio be realized by June?
This doesn't matter. What's lost is lost. People will do the best they can to recover what they can but no one is going to say "oh you're underwriting sucks because you lost me 40% of my RTR during an unprecedented once in a century global pandemic that shut down the world economy." That's true for this industry and every other industry.
3) how many merchants can last it out for another six weeks (or more)?
I hope all, but I'm sure a lot won't. And yet every single business who does will need access to capital. So unless you think every dentist, plumber, electrician, trucker, restaurant, bar, landscaper and on and on will be out of business and there will be no services or businesses left, this isn't a great statement. Plus there will be tons of new businesses opened to replace the old ones. Like we have, over and over, during the course of history.
4) the emergency Covid 19 SBA....in a good year, they would take 4-6 weeks to complete? With all the increased volume, you think that you can get it done sooner?
It doesn't matter, we aren't picking winners and losers now. Whatever is lost is lost. But after, we will all be funding the winners, and the new businesses to come. + most businesses can furlough their employees, they'll collect unemployment and the business can open back up after. No landlord is evicting because the whole world would be out of tenants.
5) how many merchant will be gun shy after this? won't be hiring back full staff, etc?Very small percentage if any. No one will say "hmm let me make less money in case another global pandemic sneaks up on me." People go into business to make money and they keep pushing. There will be plenty of merchants who need advances and plenty more who've never heard of them who will LOVE the quick access to capital (presuming funders act appropriately).

No point in anyone being pessimistic. This industry will be back, maybe some new faces and new capital sources but: BUSINESSES NEED MONEY AND WE WILL ALWAYS PROVIDE IT THE QUICKEST.

[fundingsmbs]

I agree it will be back just not sure when or if it will be back to how people were accustomed to in the near future. lots of moving parts.

[SFC]

I agree it will be back just not sure when or if it will be back to how people were accustomed to in the near future. lots of moving parts.

Perhaps, but again, everyone, in every single industry, across the globe is saying that same statement. We are all in this together. When life goes back to "normal" this will too. There just may be more opportunities in the short term than usual.